About me
Aleksandar Đelošević, Director of Belgrade-based strategic think tank Balkan Security Agenda (BSA) where he is also Head of International Security Programme. Aleksandar is also advisor to Vice president of Belgrade Chamber of Comerce on Corporate Security issues. He studied History on Philosophic Faculty, and Security Studies on Faculty of Security, University of Belgrade. Aleksandar was participant and speaker on more then 100 international conferences and seminars in country and abroad. By opening constructive and scientific dilemas, he gave contribution to better understanding the Security dimension of European and EuroAtlantic integration of Balkan region. He was long year member of Atlantic Council of Serbia and member of Editorial Work newsletter “Atlantis”, for which he wrote several notice articles about terrorism threat in Europe. He is author of Afghan Chess board, The pirates of the 21st century: International community’s comprehensive response to piracy, Co-author of First Vocabulary of Europian Security in South East Europe and Backgrounder of Mission EULEX. Aleksandar worked as Assistant Editor, Military TV show “Shield”, and also lead a Analyst Team on Terrorist and Organized Criminal Search Data Base (TOC-search), Joint Project of George C. Marshal European Center for Security Studies, Faculty of Security Studies and Faculty of Mathematics University of Belgrade. He is a member of Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC) and Network for European Security. Posses several years experience working in the Private Security Sector. He speaks English and use German, French and Russian. His research interests focus on International Security, Defence Policy, European Security, Comprehensive response to Emerging Security Threats and Strategic developments in South East European Security and Defence Structures.
Strategic Balkan 2013 Part II
Balkan need to find ways of alternative engagement to
move the enlargement agenda forward, to engage with the government authorities
and other important stakeholders, not to lose momentum. If in those difficult
times we lose momentum in enlargement, who is going to put it back? Balkan Security Agenda is response on
this call. The High Level Dialogue on the Accession Process with Bosnia
and Herzegovina has delivered. And the
Structured Dialogue has delivered. The Positive Agenda with Turkey
has delivered. Its not secret what will define enlargement next year: bilateral
isuess and how to reconcile the 130,000 or 140,000 pages of acquis, of the
legislation which was adopted years ago, with what is in the pipeline and what
is being decided in each and every European Council and European Parliament
session. On July 1st Croatia will
become 28th Member
State , without anyone
suggesting any kind of monitoring mechanism. At the same time Montenegro
will become a new leader for the enlargement agenda, by opening accession focused
on chapters 23 and 24. Macedonia
may be a fragile state given its size, location, history, and ethnic composition,
but it has survived remarkably well to date. The High
Level Accession Dialogue has delivered. The solution is a very open,
forthcoming policy towards its neighbours, whether it is Greece or Bulgaria. Especially Greece has made some important steps.Destabilization
in Macedonia
is a real possibility and could still occur in the future, although under
different circumstances. It would come about if the ethnic Albanians of
Macedonia joined forces with the Albanian Kosovars, the Albanians in
Montenegro, and Albania itself to create a "Greater Albania," thereby
bringing an end to a viable, multi-ethnic Macedonia.The ethnically based
political parties seek compromise with each other, rather than deadlock, and
inter-ethnic relations are relatively calm at this time. “Serbian Primeminister Dacic: ‘Why
don’t we build a highway to the southern Serbian city of Niš?’
Thaci said, ‘Why don’t we ask the EU for money for that?’. Lady Ashton said:
“Now you two are against me.’ So, I said: ‘You asked us for normalisation of
relations, well give us the money!’”The anecdote is telling. Belgrade and Pristina leaders made progress on a
number of issues especially on how to regulate border crossings. Serbia’s
government was being courageous and this should be recognised. Both sides want
something from being seen to cooperate in the EU talks. Kosovo wants to make
progress on getting visa-free travel to Europe’s
Schengen zone. Serbia
would like to get a date to start EU accession talks. EU is on the move for a
permanent and final solution. Serbia’s
entry into the EU has been aggravated by different factors, including the
negative experiences with Romania
and Bulgaria
and the world’s economic crisis, which has affected all countries. Albania, country that celebrating 100
years, is not yet ready for EU recommending the opening of accession
negotiations but receive 12 key recommendations since last year. Dialogue
between the government and opposition occasionally delivers, and occasionally
does not. Bulgarians have been told by their
leadership that the best future for their nation is to be integrated with the
West. Given the end of the Soviet bloc, of which they were stalwart members,
their choice is portrayed as conforming to Western values and culture on the
one hand or taking a stance of isolation and risking a security vacuum on the
other. This leaves aside an alternative which accepts democracy and a market
economy to a limited extent, an option which could garner majority support if
the nation's current leaders come up with few benefits to show as a result of
their present course. Romania's political leadership ahave
given a great deal of early and sustained thought to reconstruction of the
Balkans, promoted a coordinated strategy for Southeastern Europe that gives
highest priority to integration with the rest of the European continent. The
situation in Romania has
many similarities to that of Bulgaria,
although there are some important differences. Most Romanians were not
interested in the parliamentary election on December 9th but more by
local issues that concern them directly. The European Union criticised Romanian
government last summer for trying to take control of the judiciary and other
public institutions. All this is a huge distraction for a country in urgent
need of reform. Early in the new year the European Commission will publish its
latest assessment of Romania’s
progress since it became a member of the EU in 2007. It is likely to be
sobering. Since its accession Romania
has mostly stagnated, says the Romanian Academic Society. Chronic political
infighting and corrupt administration make it the least capable of absorbing EU
funds (it uses only around 10% of what is on offer). It remains poor. According
to Eurostat, the commission’s statistical office, GDP per head in Romania and Bulgaria is below 50% of the EU
average. Turkey,
an EU candidate, now ranks above both countries. In spite of it all, there is
place for optimistic thoughts about this country of 20milion people. Romania
is a serious country with a well-diversified economy with a balanced mix of
services, industry and agriculture. Slovenia
is the part of the former Yugoslavia
that has most successfully pulled itself out of Belgrade's SFRJ reach. Indeed, the Slovenians
prefer to think of themselves as not part of the Balkans at all. Rather, they
like to consider their nation as part of Central Europe, like their neighbors Austria and Hungary, with some past Balkan
experience. Another self-characterization is Slovenia as a valuable bridge to
the Balkans,without being a part of the region. But truly fact is they are a
part of Balkan like it or not. Initially Slovenia feared being dragged into
the Balkan conflicts, from which it had escaped in 1991, but the country is
fortunate not having the usual ethnic mix that can be explosive in the Balkans.
Slovenia during last decade
now seeking to cut out for itself a special role in Southeastern
Europe. Moldova in 2012 were an
increasingly popular destination for European leaders. And it’s not just
because of the wine. Among the EU’s
eastern neighbours, Moldova
is distinguishing itself. Visa negotiations with the EU, which will eventually
allow Moldovans to travel to the Schengen area without a visa, are making
progress. The “frozen conflict” in Transdniestria, the breakaway eastern region
of Moldova,
remains unsolved, despite progress this year. Until March, Moldova went without an elected
president for nearly three years. Off the record, some European diplomats
lament that Moldova was
grouped with authoritarian Azerbaijan
and Belarus, rather than
with Balkan countries like Albania
or Bosnia and Herzegovina,
which are listed as potential candidates for membership. Europe needs success
stories at the moment but Moldova
isn’t one yet. If we talking about regional security of the Balkans, NATO will have primary
responsibility for a long time to come, probably for another ten years. Perhaps
this would not be the case if, in the decade after the end of the Soviet
Empire, if leaders had effectively used the OSCE, the European Union, or the
United Nations to promote the development of institutions capable of assuming
leadership for such a task. Instead, it was NATO that successfully evolved the
furthest, by transforming itself from a classical alliance for collective
defense to one with a wider mission, collective
security. Furthermore, although the United Nations, by the terms of the
agreement reached with Russia, has overall responsibility for Kosovo, and the
OSCE will play a significant role in the Balkans, no one doubts that it is NATO
which will be the senior security partner in Southeastern Europe--least of all
is this doubted by the states of the region, which clearly prefer it that way. Every crisis presents a
challenge and an opportunity. By focusing not on the
zones of conflict in the Yugoslav succession, but on the larger region
in which
the conflicts have unfolded, Balkan Security Agenda seeks to place
conflicts
and its aftermath in the broader perspective, needed for constructing
policies
aimed at establishing security and stability in Southeastern Europe.
Without
stability in its Southeastern part, there can be no peace in Europe
as a whole. Stability, moreover, requires an adequate level of economic
prosperity. For these reasons the European nations, with American,
Russian and Turkey participation, and in certain things China, must be
prepared to commit themselves to
far-reaching political, security, economic, and social reconstruction
and
change in Southeastern Europe. The prospect of
joining the European Union is essential to achieving necessary economic
reforms. In strongly urging the Balkan countries to pursue regional
integration, world must respect their many differences as well. We have
a
responsibility before our citizens, after all the conflicts and wars
and misunderstandings,
to do a deal which has long-term peace. As we face the future, we
naturally
hope for positive news, to join our efforts and energy, our unity and
responsibility, and to resolve the most difficult problems. New Year is time
for people to come together, to give and to share and to be at peace, the time
to build respect for each other that helps us all be stronger. My team joins me in wishing all of you a peaceful and very Happy New Year 2013.
Peace on Europe and goodwill for all!
Aleksandar Djelosevic
Strategic Balkan 2013 Part I
Belgrade
January 1st 2013 We are saying goodbye to 2012 which becomes history. International relations in 2013 will have the same feel, for
Barack Obama, as America’s
re-elected president, Russian Putin, China’s
newly enthroned leader, Xi Jinping, Turkish Erdogan, as well as of Angela
Merkel’s increasingly federal Europe.
The nature of great-power politics is changing. The emerging new rival is Mr
Xi, the princeling who acceded to the throne of China (or at least the
general-secretaryship of the Communist Party) in November. Mr Xi has inherited
an economy which, even if its growth rate in 2013 is no longer in double
digits, is rapidly catching up with America’s. A century ago, the
emergence of a new nationalist power, Germany,
and the failure of the superpower, Britain, to accommodate the Kaiser
proved disastrous. Mr Xi seems, like Mr Obama, to be a deeply pragmatic sort.
Structure will be crucial: Mr Obama should look for ways to integrate China
into the existing world order, so that it helps solve disputes. But personal
chemistry will matter too. The sooner both men get off their rhetorical high
horses, the better.
Mrs Merkel’s troubled Europe presents
a very different sort of challenge.The euro zone’s economy is stagnating, with
the continuing danger that the single currency will collapse. If the euro zone
comes apart in 2013, that would not only hurt Mrs Merkel (who would surely lose
her chancellorship) but also blight Mr Obama’s life too: any hopes of an
American recovery would disappear. The more likely outcome, however, is that
events go in the opposite direction: rather than disintegrating in 2013, the
euro zone moves sluggishly towards a more federal structure; and that in this
Europe, a re-elected Mrs Merkel becomes still more dominant. A more integrated
Europe would be a nightmare for America’s
main European ally, Britain,
and make Mrs Merkel a more powerful force on the world stage. What will happened
with SouthEast Europe which produce more
history than it could consume?
On Todays Day, 20 years ago Central European Countries Slovakia and Czech
Republic split on peaceful way, only to be joined at that time EU and in future
very probably federal Europe, Europe that today need creativity to maintain the
momentum of enlargement. Balkan countries in 2013 should not dream about a
Marshall Plan. Countries need to create the environment to create
investment The financial crisis in the region follows closely the one in
most EU countries, given their importance as export markets for the Balkans
region. Besides lower export demand, the region has had to cope with expensive
financing and sliding remittances from newly jobless migrant workers. The
region also on average suffers an unemployment rate of about 23% to 24%, double
the EU average. European perspective coupled with a regional approach towards
developing their markets that would lead to renewed foreign direct investment
and growth. One of the key priority
areas also, which could lead to wider progress in the region is that of
infrastructures joint projects and energy efficiency. Nevertheless, the
importance of the EU to a prosperous and benign future for the region cannot be
underestimated. The EU is the beacon to which the Balkan nations are drawn.
Their desire to join, no matter how distant in years the road ahead, should
create the momentum for helping to complete the necessary economic and
political reforms.The Western community has been repeating a mantra of the need
for the Balkan countries to cooperate with each other and adopt strategies for
regional economic integration. Although this approach is certainly commendable,
it should be recognized that there are limits to which these still small and not
adequately deregulated economies can benefit from such regional cooperation.
There are important differences among the countries of the Balkans in their
economies, political structures, and societies that should not be overlooked.
It is important, therefore, that the Western approach be fine-tuned, balancing
the quest for integration with the realities and benefits of differentiation.
ALEKSANDAR DJELOSEVIC A regular commentary on strategic affairs from a leading commentator and analyst in South East Europe
Aleksandar Đelošević, Director of Belgrade-based strategic think tank Balkan Security Agenda (BSA) where he is also Head of International Security Programme. Aleksandar is also advisor to Vice president of Belgrade Chamber of Comerce on Corporate Security issues. He studied History on Philosophic Faculty, and Security Studies on Faculty of Security, University of Belgrade. Aleksandar was participant and speaker on more then 100 international conferences and seminars in country and abroad. By opening constructive and scientific dilemas, he gave contribution to better understanding the Security dimension of European and EuroAtlantic integration of Balkan region. He was long year member of Atlantic Council of Serbia and member of Editorial Work newsletter “Atlantis”, for which he wrote several notice articles about terrorism threat in Europe. He is author of Afghan Chess board, The pirates of the 21st century: International community’s comprehensive response to piracy, Co-author of First Vocabulary of Europian Security in South East Europe and Backgrounder of Mission EULEX. Aleksandar worked as Assistant Editor, Military TV show “Shield”, and also lead a Analyst Team on Terrorist and Organized Criminal Search Data Base (TOC-search), Joint Project of George C. Marshal European Center for Security Studies, Faculty of Security Studies and Faculty of Mathematics University of Belgrade. He is a member of Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC) and Network for European Security. Posses several years experience working in the Private Security Sector. He speaks English and use German, French and Russian. His research interests focus on International Security, Defence Policy, European Security, Comprehensive response to Emerging Security Threats and Strategic developments in South East European Security and Defence Structures.