Petak, Februar 22, 2013
Strategic Balkan 2013 Part I
Belgrade
January 1st 2013 We are saying goodbye to 2012 which becomes history. International relations in 2013 will have the same feel, for
Barack Obama, as America’s
re-elected president, Russian Putin, China’s
newly enthroned leader, Xi Jinping, Turkish Erdogan, as well as of Angela
Merkel’s increasingly federal Europe.
The nature of great-power politics is changing. The emerging new rival is Mr
Xi, the princeling who acceded to the throne of China (or at least the
general-secretaryship of the Communist Party) in November. Mr Xi has inherited
an economy which, even if its growth rate in 2013 is no longer in double
digits, is rapidly catching up with America’s. A century ago, the
emergence of a new nationalist power, Germany,
and the failure of the superpower, Britain, to accommodate the Kaiser
proved disastrous. Mr Xi seems, like Mr Obama, to be a deeply pragmatic sort.
Structure will be crucial: Mr Obama should look for ways to integrate China
into the existing world order, so that it helps solve disputes. But personal
chemistry will matter too. The sooner both men get off their rhetorical high
horses, the better.
Mrs Merkel’s troubled Europe presents
a very different sort of challenge.The euro zone’s economy is stagnating, with
the continuing danger that the single currency will collapse. If the euro zone
comes apart in 2013, that would not only hurt Mrs Merkel (who would surely lose
her chancellorship) but also blight Mr Obama’s life too: any hopes of an
American recovery would disappear. The more likely outcome, however, is that
events go in the opposite direction: rather than disintegrating in 2013, the
euro zone moves sluggishly towards a more federal structure; and that in this
Europe, a re-elected Mrs Merkel becomes still more dominant. A more integrated
Europe would be a nightmare for America’s
main European ally, Britain,
and make Mrs Merkel a more powerful force on the world stage. What will happened
with SouthEast Europe which produce more
history than it could consume?
On Todays Day, 20 years ago Central European Countries Slovakia and Czech
Republic split on peaceful way, only to be joined at that time EU and in future
very probably federal Europe, Europe that today need creativity to maintain the
momentum of enlargement. Balkan countries in 2013 should not dream about a
Marshall Plan. Countries need to create the environment to create
investment The financial crisis in the region follows closely the one in
most EU countries, given their importance as export markets for the Balkans
region. Besides lower export demand, the region has had to cope with expensive
financing and sliding remittances from newly jobless migrant workers. The
region also on average suffers an unemployment rate of about 23% to 24%, double
the EU average. European perspective coupled with a regional approach towards
developing their markets that would lead to renewed foreign direct investment
and growth. One of the key priority
areas also, which could lead to wider progress in the region is that of
infrastructures joint projects and energy efficiency. Nevertheless, the
importance of the EU to a prosperous and benign future for the region cannot be
underestimated. The EU is the beacon to which the Balkan nations are drawn.
Their desire to join, no matter how distant in years the road ahead, should
create the momentum for helping to complete the necessary economic and
political reforms.The Western community has been repeating a mantra of the need
for the Balkan countries to cooperate with each other and adopt strategies for
regional economic integration. Although this approach is certainly commendable,
it should be recognized that there are limits to which these still small and not
adequately deregulated economies can benefit from such regional cooperation.
There are important differences among the countries of the Balkans in their
economies, political structures, and societies that should not be overlooked.
It is important, therefore, that the Western approach be fine-tuned, balancing
the quest for integration with the realities and benefits of differentiation.