Petak, Februar 22, 2013
Strategic Balkan 2013 Part II
Balkan need to find ways of alternative engagement to
move the enlargement agenda forward, to engage with the government authorities
and other important stakeholders, not to lose momentum. If in those difficult
times we lose momentum in enlargement, who is going to put it back? Balkan Security Agenda is response on
this call. The High Level Dialogue on the Accession Process with Bosnia
and Herzegovina has delivered. And the
Structured Dialogue has delivered. The Positive Agenda with Turkey
has delivered. Its not secret what will define enlargement next year: bilateral
isuess and how to reconcile the 130,000 or 140,000 pages of acquis, of the
legislation which was adopted years ago, with what is in the pipeline and what
is being decided in each and every European Council and European Parliament
session. On July 1st Croatia will
become 28th Member
State , without anyone
suggesting any kind of monitoring mechanism. At the same time Montenegro
will become a new leader for the enlargement agenda, by opening accession focused
on chapters 23 and 24. Macedonia
may be a fragile state given its size, location, history, and ethnic composition,
but it has survived remarkably well to date. The High
Level Accession Dialogue has delivered. The solution is a very open,
forthcoming policy towards its neighbours, whether it is Greece or Bulgaria. Especially Greece has made some important steps.Destabilization
in Macedonia
is a real possibility and could still occur in the future, although under
different circumstances. It would come about if the ethnic Albanians of
Macedonia joined forces with the Albanian Kosovars, the Albanians in
Montenegro, and Albania itself to create a "Greater Albania," thereby
bringing an end to a viable, multi-ethnic Macedonia.The ethnically based
political parties seek compromise with each other, rather than deadlock, and
inter-ethnic relations are relatively calm at this time. “Serbian Primeminister Dacic: ‘Why
don’t we build a highway to the southern Serbian city of Niš?’
Thaci said, ‘Why don’t we ask the EU for money for that?’. Lady Ashton said:
“Now you two are against me.’ So, I said: ‘You asked us for normalisation of
relations, well give us the money!’”The anecdote is telling. Belgrade and Pristina leaders made progress on a
number of issues especially on how to regulate border crossings. Serbia’s
government was being courageous and this should be recognised. Both sides want
something from being seen to cooperate in the EU talks. Kosovo wants to make
progress on getting visa-free travel to Europe’s
Schengen zone. Serbia
would like to get a date to start EU accession talks. EU is on the move for a
permanent and final solution. Serbia’s
entry into the EU has been aggravated by different factors, including the
negative experiences with Romania
and Bulgaria
and the world’s economic crisis, which has affected all countries. Albania, country that celebrating 100
years, is not yet ready for EU recommending the opening of accession
negotiations but receive 12 key recommendations since last year. Dialogue
between the government and opposition occasionally delivers, and occasionally
does not. Bulgarians have been told by their
leadership that the best future for their nation is to be integrated with the
West. Given the end of the Soviet bloc, of which they were stalwart members,
their choice is portrayed as conforming to Western values and culture on the
one hand or taking a stance of isolation and risking a security vacuum on the
other. This leaves aside an alternative which accepts democracy and a market
economy to a limited extent, an option which could garner majority support if
the nation's current leaders come up with few benefits to show as a result of
their present course. Romania's political leadership ahave
given a great deal of early and sustained thought to reconstruction of the
Balkans, promoted a coordinated strategy for Southeastern Europe that gives
highest priority to integration with the rest of the European continent. The
situation in Romania has
many similarities to that of Bulgaria,
although there are some important differences. Most Romanians were not
interested in the parliamentary election on December 9th but more by
local issues that concern them directly. The European Union criticised Romanian
government last summer for trying to take control of the judiciary and other
public institutions. All this is a huge distraction for a country in urgent
need of reform. Early in the new year the European Commission will publish its
latest assessment of Romania’s
progress since it became a member of the EU in 2007. It is likely to be
sobering. Since its accession Romania
has mostly stagnated, says the Romanian Academic Society. Chronic political
infighting and corrupt administration make it the least capable of absorbing EU
funds (it uses only around 10% of what is on offer). It remains poor. According
to Eurostat, the commission’s statistical office, GDP per head in Romania and Bulgaria is below 50% of the EU
average. Turkey,
an EU candidate, now ranks above both countries. In spite of it all, there is
place for optimistic thoughts about this country of 20milion people. Romania
is a serious country with a well-diversified economy with a balanced mix of
services, industry and agriculture. Slovenia
is the part of the former Yugoslavia
that has most successfully pulled itself out of Belgrade's SFRJ reach. Indeed, the Slovenians
prefer to think of themselves as not part of the Balkans at all. Rather, they
like to consider their nation as part of Central Europe, like their neighbors Austria and Hungary, with some past Balkan
experience. Another self-characterization is Slovenia as a valuable bridge to
the Balkans,without being a part of the region. But truly fact is they are a
part of Balkan like it or not. Initially Slovenia feared being dragged into
the Balkan conflicts, from which it had escaped in 1991, but the country is
fortunate not having the usual ethnic mix that can be explosive in the Balkans.
Slovenia during last decade
now seeking to cut out for itself a special role in Southeastern
Europe. Moldova in 2012 were an
increasingly popular destination for European leaders. And it’s not just
because of the wine. Among the EU’s
eastern neighbours, Moldova
is distinguishing itself. Visa negotiations with the EU, which will eventually
allow Moldovans to travel to the Schengen area without a visa, are making
progress. The “frozen conflict” in Transdniestria, the breakaway eastern region
of Moldova,
remains unsolved, despite progress this year. Until March, Moldova went without an elected
president for nearly three years. Off the record, some European diplomats
lament that Moldova was
grouped with authoritarian Azerbaijan
and Belarus, rather than
with Balkan countries like Albania
or Bosnia and Herzegovina,
which are listed as potential candidates for membership. Europe needs success
stories at the moment but Moldova
isn’t one yet. If we talking about regional security of the Balkans, NATO will have primary
responsibility for a long time to come, probably for another ten years. Perhaps
this would not be the case if, in the decade after the end of the Soviet
Empire, if leaders had effectively used the OSCE, the European Union, or the
United Nations to promote the development of institutions capable of assuming
leadership for such a task. Instead, it was NATO that successfully evolved the
furthest, by transforming itself from a classical alliance for collective
defense to one with a wider mission, collective
security. Furthermore, although the United Nations, by the terms of the
agreement reached with Russia, has overall responsibility for Kosovo, and the
OSCE will play a significant role in the Balkans, no one doubts that it is NATO
which will be the senior security partner in Southeastern Europe--least of all
is this doubted by the states of the region, which clearly prefer it that way. Every crisis presents a
challenge and an opportunity. By focusing not on the
zones of conflict in the Yugoslav succession, but on the larger region
in which
the conflicts have unfolded, Balkan Security Agenda seeks to place
conflicts
and its aftermath in the broader perspective, needed for constructing
policies
aimed at establishing security and stability in Southeastern Europe.
Without
stability in its Southeastern part, there can be no peace in Europe
as a whole. Stability, moreover, requires an adequate level of economic
prosperity. For these reasons the European nations, with American,
Russian and Turkey participation, and in certain things China, must be
prepared to commit themselves to
far-reaching political, security, economic, and social reconstruction
and
change in Southeastern Europe. The prospect of
joining the European Union is essential to achieving necessary economic
reforms. In strongly urging the Balkan countries to pursue regional
integration, world must respect their many differences as well. We have
a
responsibility before our citizens, after all the conflicts and wars
and misunderstandings,
to do a deal which has long-term peace. As we face the future, we
naturally
hope for positive news, to join our efforts and energy, our unity and
responsibility, and to resolve the most difficult problems. New Year is time
for people to come together, to give and to share and to be at peace, the time
to build respect for each other that helps us all be stronger. My team joins me in wishing all of you a peaceful and very Happy New Year 2013.
Peace on Europe and goodwill for all! Aleksandar Djelosevic